Carry Distance, Golf Wells, Flores, and Ngannou
Carry Distance
The PGA Tour heads to Phoenix this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The field is strong, featuring 18 of the top 30 players in the world alongside many other talented players.
I’ll pose the question everyone else is asking: How many yards will Branden Grace average off the tee this week?
Ok that was a joke, but I do want to talk about it because 1) Distance is an important topic and 2) Branden Grace is a unique case.
We could discuss dozens of factors that determine how far a ball travels (like wind and the firmness of conditions), but I want to focus on just two elements of distance: how far a ball flies and how far a ball rolls. Branden Grace is about average on Tour by Driving Distance, yet he ranks well below average by Carry Distance, which is how far the ball flies in the air.
Basically, he hits his driver low and it rolls a lot:
Branden Grace carries the ball ~268 yards and averages ~294 yards off the tee. On average, he carries the ball about 91% of its total distance traveled. At the other end of the spectrum, Phil Mickelson carries the ball about 98% of its total distance traveled. Overall, Mickelson also hits the ball farther than Grace does.
Recently I have spent some time thinking about the subtle effects of thick rough on a golf course. Thick rough swallows an errant tee shot. Short rough, like the rough in Phoenix, slows the progress of a golf ball, but the ball still rolls.
Consider the implications of the above statements for a player like Grace who relies on his ball rolling to get distance. When the rough is short, Grace’s errant tee shots will come up short of Mickelson’s errant tee shots. When the rough is thick, Grace’s errant tee shots will come up way short of Mickelson’s errant tee shots.
Distance is an advantage; it is worth strokes. Thus, in theory, Grace is at a disadvantage (off the tee) on a course with thick rough.
The below table represents how much distance Grace and Mickelson gain/lose against competitors on holes where each player finds the rough since 2020.
Interpretation: When Mickelson hits a bomb into thick rough, he gains 7.8 yards per drive on the field. When he hits a bomb into short rough, he gains 2.5 yards on the field. This makes sense because Phil carries the ball a long way, while many of his competitors’ shots will get snagged by the rough.
Note: I am strictly making a point about driving distance, which is an advantage on Tour. I am not suggesting that Phil Mickelson will outperform his expectations on courses with thick rough. Mickelson will outdrive competitors by a significant margin on holes with thick rough, but Mickelson is so inaccurate that the high penalty associated with thick rough will counteract his distance advantage off the tee.
However, if Branden Grace tees it up against a high carry-distance player who hits the ball exactly as accurately as Grace does, I would cut the rough down as short as possible to give Grace the best chance of winning. I want his ball to roll.
Going forward, this is something for you to observe as you watch tournaments with varying lengths of rough. There could be implications for Tour players too; maybe we should consider optimizing our equipment for carry distance when the rough is thick?
And for what it’s worth, these thoughts were inspired by watching Bryson DeChambeau, a high carry distance player. He’s not too bad on courses with fairways lined by thick rough.
Golf Wells
A controversial Asian Tour event concluded in Saudi Arabia yesterday. I’ll admit, I get a good laugh out of some of the jokes people crack about the tournament. And given past leaderboards at the Saudi event, I myself quite enjoy referring to this golf course as a bomber’s paradise.
The event is controversial in that golfers accept hefty appearance fees to show up and play in this tournament, hosted by a regime with a terrible human rights record. Whether or not a player should accept the money and participate is an interesting ethical question, and if you have an opinion on it, you are not alone.
I am not writing about Saudi Arabia to express my opinion on it. I’m including this section because not every subscriber follows golf, and the relationship between funding and sports is great water cooler (or Thanksgiving) conversation. Reminder, the Olympics just kicked off in China, another host with a rough track record.
Unfortunately, not every sponsor can have as clean of a track record as PGA Tour sponsors like Wells Fargo…
Ok, maybe I shouldn’t compare Wells Fargo to Saudi Arabia or China, even if I’m just kidding around. To my knowledge, Wells Fargo has never tried to destroy anyone physically. Just financially.
Brian Flores
Brian Flores was fired as Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins last month. Last week, he filed a class action lawsuit against the Dolphins, Broncos, Giants, and the NFL for racist practices.
The lawsuit contains text messages from Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick, congratulating Flores on becoming the new coach of the Giants:
Well, Brian Flores did not become the coach of the New York Giants. Belichick made a mistake; he thought he was texting Brian Daboll, who was named Head Coach of the Giants a few days later.
The primary issue is that Flores interviewed for the Giants job opening between the time Belichick texted him and when Brian Daboll was named the new coach. So if the decision had already been made to hire Brian Daboll before Flores interviewed, a case could be made that the Giants were only interviewing Flores to satisfy the Rooney Rule, a rule that requires teams to interview minority candidates for senior positions in the NFL.
Here’s the statement from the Giants, strongly denying the allegations against the Giants. Flores’ lawsuit makes other allegations as well, which you can read about here.
As details emerge, this will be one of the biggest stories in sports, and I do not think Brian Flores will be the only coach offering evidence of racial discrimination.
Francis Ngannou
For my money, Francis Ngannou’s future is one of the most compelling topics in sports. In case you don’t know who he is, Ngannou is the current UFC Heavyweight champion. His backstory is fascinating; Francis was born in Cameroon and began working in sand mines at the age of nine.
In his early twenties, Francis undertook a dangerous journey up through various African countries, hopped on a raft in Morocco, and called Red Cross as soon as he’d reached international waters. With the dream of becoming a fighter, ultimately Ngannou took refuge in Paris, sleeping in a parking lot for months while training at a gym. Less than a decade later, Francis has ascended to the pinnacle of the UFC, an organization notorious for tense contract negotiations with their top athletes.
Entering the 2022 calendar year, Ngannou had one fight remaining on his eight-fight contract. In his final fight on the contract, Ngannou was scheduled to fight Ciryl Gane on January 22nd for the Heavyweight title. Ngannou had opened as the betting favorite, but as the fight approached, he slid to an underdog.
Some people questioned Ngannou’s motivation entering the fight. Francis had publicly expressed his desire to enter the boxing world. Plus, the UFC and Ngannou had been butting heads on terms for a contract extension, and the relationship between the UFC and Ngannou had soured. If Ngannou lost the January 22nd fight, he’d become a free agent. If he won the fight, he’d be subject to a “champion’s clause”, meaning he’d be contractually obligated to unhappily fight for another year on the UFC roster.
On top of the conflict with the UFC, Ngannou entered fight week with a significant knee injury to his MCL and ACL. Doctors advised him to pull out of the fight, as a strike to his knee could cause irreversible long-term damage. Ngannou had every reason to lose.
Instead of pulling out of the fight, he dealt with the adversity and won:
For his efforts, Ngannou earned $600k, which might sound decent until you consider how much money UFC fighters spend on training, dieting, coaching, etc., all without health insurance and other benefits. Most UFC athletes earn far less than Ngannou, and many of them lose money despite earning six figures.
For a superstar, the bigger money is in boxing. As a reference point, boxer Tyson Fury made ~$25M for fighting Deontay Wilder last year. Now Ngannou wants to box Fury, and I can’t blame him.
But since Ngannou won his fight, he remains under contract for the UFC, which prevents him from boxing. The conflict between the UFC and Ngannou is nowhere near resolved. Allegedly, the UFC has threatened to sue Ngannou for discussing a potential boxing bout with a member of Jake Paul’s team.
Regardless of what happens here, it’s fun to watch athletes harness their power to get the money they deserve, especially when they do it with dignity and honesty like Ngannou has. The man jumped onto a raft in the Strait of Gibraltar without knowing how to swim; I don’t think he’s afraid to stick up for himself in a contract negotiation.
Watching UFC is compelling, largely due to the inspirational stories of these incredible athletes. There is a phenomenal card next Saturday on ESPN+. I will be in the arena (just spectating), and I recommend you buy the pay-per-view!
Contact/Feedback
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Other Recent Content
I can’t get over this clip:
Hall of Fame picture that someone posted in remembrance of Kobe Bryant:
Not knowing how odds work is a legitimate issue in the below clip. But the suggestion that Jason Day is “value” from someone who is unqualified to make that assessment is a bigger issue:
The FBI warned Olympic athletes to leave their mobile devices at home. Apparently the app athletes are required to download records speech. And it’s the same technology being used to surveil and oppress Uighurs. Not great:
On a positive note, pretty refreshing when an athlete is authentic:
