LIV Golf, Optimal Punting and Dispersion
LIV
Just under a year ago, I listened to a podcast with Tristan Harris, a former design ethicist at Google. He’s an expert on human persuasion. Harris explained that Facebook’s competitors are not Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, etc. Facebook’s competition is your attention span.
Last Thursday through Saturday, LIV Golf captured the attention spans of everyone in the golf world while hosting its first tournament. For those who are unfamiliar with the new Saudi-backed league, here is a primer:
Ethics aside, LIV Golf has been one of the best developments in professional golf in that it has injected a breath of fresh air into a sport that’s allergic to innovation. But barring a significant change, LIV Golf is not going to hold the golf world’s attention span long-term.
Now that the dust has settled (shout out Jack Del Rio), I’d challenge people to recall their favorite four or five shots from the first LIV Golf event. They’ll be unable because despite the innovative, commercial-free broadcast, LIV isn’t a compelling golf viewing experience.
Forty-eight golfers divided into 12 contrived “teams” playing for $25M doesn’t elicit emotion. Charl Schwartzel, a player who has been largely irrelevant in golf over the past decade, won $4M for his victory in the first LIV event. I am quite confident that if he had finished second place ($2.1M) or even dead last ($120k), he’d have been satisfied. That defies the spirit of competition, and it isn’t compelling to watch.
Everyone’s attention span is a free agent. People want to watch the best athletes in the world perform when it matters. Unfortunately for the PGA Tour, the Saudi Arabians have poached a handful of the best golfers in the world. Fortunately for the PGA Tour, none of LIV Golf matters (yet). Unfortunately again for the PGA Tour, very little of PGA Tour golf matters to the best players in the world. That has to change.
The PGA Tour must reconfigure its schedule so that golf superstardom is both coveted and rewarded.
Here are a few things the PGA Tour should try:
An All-Star Weekend - I’ve discussed this idea many times, but it’s a no brainer. Showcase the best golfers in the world in creative skills competitions on prime-time television. It’d be easy to find corporate sponsorships for a made-for-tv event like this. Line the pockets of golf’s true superstars.
A Match Play Series - Play 5-8 Match Play events per year among the best 16 players in the world at unique venues across the globe. Match Play is the most effective way to create authentic competition. Whether for millions of dollars or for free, head-to-head competition amongst the best athletes in the world is engaging.
Vary formats of some of the Tour’s Stroke Play events. How about a tournament where you can only hit Driver twice per round? It’d be interesting to predict/observe/discuss where players elect to use their Driver against a limit. How about a tournament where you can only play with five clubs? Try something different. Give us something to which we can react.
A Worst Ball Partner Tournament - I’d like to see a partner match play tournament where each player hits his tee shot, then their opponents pick which tee shot you’ll play for the remainder of the hole, and it’s alternate shot from that point onward. We’d get to witness unique recovery shots, tension between partners, match play intensity!
Being one of the sport’s top 16 names should be rewarded, and the schedule and compensation structure must provide that incentive.
The above ideas may sound outlandish, but any one of them is an improvement upon 90% of the PGA Tour schedule. Best case, implementing some of the ideas above dramatically increases the entertainment value of the PGA Tour. Worst case, golf fans have a fresh format to bash online, which isn’t a bad result! Online bashing is much better than irrelevance.
This past weekend’s enthusiasm around LIV Golf was not a reflection of an exciting new chapter in the future of golf:
It was a reaction to golf experiencing something fresh for the first time in years.
So enough moralizing about the problems of Saudi Arabian money. Pontification isn’t a talent retention strategy. It is time for the PGA Tour to create a fresh, star-focused entertainment product.
Optimal Punting and Dispersion
Punting a football and hitting a golf ball bear similarities. In each case, one aims and strikes the ball, at which point it is subject to wind, air density, unpredictable bounces, and other elements out of the striker’s control.
I recently came across a presentation about punting in the NFL. The researcher, who has since been hired by the Kansas City Chiefs, leveraged data to determine where punters should aim punts depending on factors like the accuracy of the punter and field position.
After crunching the numbers, he ultimately determined that from the opponent’s 40 yardline, inaccurate punters should aim for the center of the field around the 10-12 yardline. More accurate punters should aim out of bounds inside the 10 yardline:
Skeptics of his research might contend, “Well, a punt from the 40 yardline to the 10 yardline is not very good, so why would I aim there?” The reality is that only so much is within one’s control once a ball is launched into the air. Sure, at some frequency, the punter will be disappointed when he executes the punt exactly according to plan and it ends up at the 10 yardline. But also at some frequency, the ball is going to react differently in the air than he expected and end up within a few feet of the end zone and he’ll be ecstatic.
At some frequency, he’ll push the punt out of bounds inside the 10 yardline and feel fortunate to have escaped with a favorable result:
Like punting a football, optimally aiming a golf shot requires embracing uncertainty. The ball is rarely going to react precisely like we expect it to react.
Also like punting a football, optimal target-setting in golf varies by golfer depending on skill level and dispersion patterns. For instance, a poor long-iron approach player should have more conservative targets than Collin Morikawa, one of the best iron players in the game.
Here’s Cameron Smith’s long iron dispersion pattern from good lies to Back Left pin locations colored by the score he made from the approach shot location (Green = 2, Black = 3, Red = 4).
The center of the plot represents the pin. To Back Left pin locations, most players will miss the majority of their shots to the right so that they have green to work with on their next shot. Cam Smith misses left to Back Left pins far more often than the typical player, and unsurprisingly he underperforms to Back Left pins.
If I worked with him, we would likely drill into what’s happening on these left misses.
Not every punt should be aimed at a pylon, and not every approach shot should be aimed at the flag stick. By leveraging data, you can get a pretty clear picture of where to aim to optimize performance.
Feedback/Contact
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
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