Optimal Desert Tee Times, MLB Coaching, and Paddy
Optimal Desert Tee Times
Beginning at age 12, I caddied for eight years at Crooked Stick Golf Club. When scheduled for a Tuesday or Wednesday bag before noon, I could generally assume I’d be looping for a retiree. Often aged 70 or older, rarely shooting 90 or better.
With the exception of being hit long and down the middle of the fairway, elderly drives off the first tee ended up everywhere. However, once the knee braces were affixed and the motors were up and running, the remainder of the round typically flowed much more smoothly. It just takes a couple of holes to warm up.
Anyway, I took a look at driving distance by hole and evidently, PGA Tour players need a couple of holes to warm up too! On a player’s first hole of the day, he hits the ball 3-4 yards shorter than his overall season average. On his second hole, he hits the ball 1-2 yards shorter than his overall season average, and then his numbers get back on track for the remainder of the round. Those numbers may sound small, but they are not insignificant.
Could factors other than “not being warmed up” partially explain why players hit the ball slightly shorter on their first couple holes than on subsequent holes? Sure, but the data produces a reasonable result, and I think it is fair to expect that a player will not reach his maximum distance on his first couple of tee shots. It is challenging to step onto the first tee at 8:00 a.m. and bust a long drive.
The PGA Tour is in the middle of a two-week stretch in Las Vegas, a city in which the mornings are brisk with rising temperatures throughout the day. In warmer temperatures, a golf ball travels farther. So what is the most advantageous tee time?
Quick refresher on how PGA Tour tee times work: On Thursday, half the players tee off in the morning and half tee off in the afternoon, equally split between starting your round on Hole #1 and Hole #10. Tee times flip on Friday. So if you start your round Thursday morning on Hole #1, you will start your round Friday afternoon on Hole #10.
Most weeks on Tour, your assigned tee time will not provide you a predictable advantage. But I think there might be an advantage this upcoming week in Vegas!
I’ve written about this before, but length does not provide an equal advantage on all golf holes. Generally, longer hitters have their biggest advantage on long holes. So let’s look at Summit Club, host of this week’s tournament in Las Vegas, and let’s consider how the length of the hole interacts with the forecasted temperature. Hole #1 is a short Par 4, and Hole #2 is a mid-length Par 3. On the other hand, Hole #10 is the longest Par 4 on the course, and Hole #11 is a long 235-yard Par 3.
So if I could choose my tee time for this week’s tournament, I’d prefer to start my morning round on the front nine and my afternoon round on the back nine. When the temperature is coldest and I have not yet warmed up, I would rather start my round on holes where distance is less advantageous than on holes where distance is prioritized like it is on Holes #10 and #11.
With a morning tee time on the front nine, I will be ready for long holes by the time I reach holes #10 and #11, and the temperature will have risen considerably from the beginning of the round. On my other day of play, I will have to begin my round on Hole #10, but it will be in the afternoon with warmer temperatures.
I would not be surprised if players who start their rounds in the morning on the back nine underperform other players this week.
I wanted to write about this for two reasons:
1) This is a good example of combining concepts to find an edge. Elite sports bettors look for angles like this. Will tee times ultimately matter this week? Maybe, maybe not. This is a limited field event, so the difference between the first and final tee times will only be a couple hours apart, which mitigates the effect of the temperature increase.
But it is something to consider each week on Tour, especially in climates where the temperature consistently rises throughout the day. I doubt many golf bettors are modeling the relationship between forecasted temperature and starting hole, but I suspect some are.
2) Tee times should be randomized. I’ve argued this before, and I will continue to argue the point. Most weeks, tee times do not matter. Some weeks, especially when weather is involved, tee times create a sizable advantage for players. The advantage should be distributed randomly. There is no counterargument strong enough to invalidate introducing randomized tee times.
“But what about featured groups? We want to have the best players in the world in the same pairings for television purposes.”
We sent a civilian into space a couple weeks ago. Surely we can write a simple program that randomizes tee times while incorporating rules like “Top two OWGR players + Rickie Fowler.”
MLB Manager Tactics
I’m not an expert on the numbers behind optimal coaching decisions in baseball, but I was listening to a podcast last week in which one of the guests referenced a poor coaching decision in the National League Wild Card Game between the Dodgers and the Cardinals.
The score was tied 1-1 in the top of the sixth inning with two outs and the go-ahead run on first base. Adam Wainwright, pitcher for the Cardinals, was at the plate. Instead of pinch hitting for Wainwright, a pitcher who offers little chance of driving in the run, Cardinals Manager Mike Shildt elected to leave Wainwright in the game:
Wainwright grounded out to end the inning. He then pitched to only two more batters in the next inning before Shildt removed him from the game.
Particularly if a pitcher is near the end of his night from a pitch count perspective, pinch hitting for him in a high leverage situation makes sense to me. Even without a runner on first base, I would not be surprised if intelligent models recommend pinch hitting for a pitcher near the end of his pitch count in a tie game.
Had I been watching the game, there is no chance I’d have noticed the “mistake.” But it does strike me as a mistake. Something to look out for throughout the remainder of the MLB Playoffs!
Paddy the Baddy
Paddy the Baddy is a Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter from Liverpool, England. He has been successful in the MMA world for a few years, but he did not make his UFC debut until a little over a month ago. He won his fight in style and became a social media sensation.
Entering his fight, Paddy had about 60k followers on Instagram. A few days after the fight, he had 500k followers on Instagram. Today, he has 740k followers.
I did not see this coming:
Like him or hate him, this is a savvy business move from Dave Portnoy.
UFC has mastered the television-viewing experience. Inside and outside the Octagon, the fighters are as authentic as athletes in any other sport. And to sell pay-per-views, fighters must market themselves effectively. I firmly believe the organization will continue its rapid growth in popularity over the coming years. Smart of Portnoy to invest in Paddy, and I’m interested in how the partnership will benefit both the UFC and Barstool.
Cadence
Henceforward, Finding the Edge will be on an irregular cadence as opposed to a weekly cadence. I want to write when it is informative and worth your time to read. Especially in non-peak golf season, that’s a tall task. So you can expect a newsletter every 2-3 weeks. If you want newsletters more regularly, send me interesting sports analytics content!
Contact/Feedback
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Other Content from This Past Week
NFL coach Urban Meyer (deservedly) received heat for his antics a week ago. After losing in Cincinnati, Meyer went to a bar in Ohio instead of flying back with his team to Jacksonville. While at the bar, he was caught on film getting handsy with a young woman and issued an apology:
A couple days after Urban’s video was released, NFL coach Jon Gruden came under fire for racist comments he made in 2011 about the NFL Players Association executive director:
This made me laugh:
Brandon Staley, coach of the LA Chargers went viral for a couple analytics-friendly clips. I liked this one:
Texas A&M shocked Alabama in a thrilling 41-38 victory on Saturday night, which makes this clip a lot funnier:
Hahahaha, no, no, Nick. In football!