Problematic FedEx Cup Points System and Showing Some Fight
Intro
Thanks for reading Finding the Edge! Quick intro: After having success betting on golf, I worked for a golf analytics company who consults many of the world’s top golfers. Shortly into my time at the company, I realized professional golfers consume flawed data. I stopped working at the company and created a database that solves for the deficiencies in the data. Now, I co-own a business consulting top professional golfers.
I’m starting this newsletter to cover interesting topics in the world of sports with a focus on decision-making and strategy. Though analysis has come a long way, an informed viewer will notice that even on the grandest stages, suboptimal decisions happen all the time.
“Sports Analytics” can be a black box. It’s my goal to unpack some of that, and over time we will explore how intelligent decision-making improves outcomes across sports. We’ll also cover interesting topics from the last week that make for interesting conversation.
I’ll be wrong from time to time. You can let me know about it by replying to this newsletter or emailing me at Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com. The engagement is appreciated!
The Problem with the FedEx Cup Points System
If you are unfamiliar with how golf standings work, you are not alone. At any given point, a professional golfer could be tracking his standing in at least four different systems (Official World Golf Ranking, Ryder Cup Standings, FedEx Cup Standings, Race to Dubai Standings): it’s a bit of a mess.
But this should not really matter, right? As a professional golfer, I just need to schedule my events, play good golf and the standings will reflect my performance accurately, right? Well, sort of.
Each of these systems ranks players based on different criteria, and though you could nitpick shortcomings of each one, the FedEx Cup is clearly the most deserving of scrutiny. The FedEx Cup is the PGA Tour’s scoring system for a season. It matters. Players who earn the most points are eligible for the Playoffs, which has financial rewards and ensures job security for upcoming seasons. The last event of the Playoffs, the Tour Championship, is comprised entirely of the Top 30 players ranked by FedEx Cup points.
The correct interpretation for the standings is (or should be) roughly: “Bryson DeChambeau is #1 in FedEx Cup points. He is having the best PGA Tour season.” The problem is that the system fails to account properly for which tournaments are hardest to win, which is a reflection of the quality of golfers that play in the tournament. You don’t need to look up the details of the scoring system; I’ll give you the SparkNotes.
Each tournament doles out a similar number of FedEx Cup points, and points are highly concentrated at the top of the leaderboard. In other words, if you win an event that many top golfers do not show up to play in, you win almost as many points (500) as a player earns for winning the Masters (600). If you finish 10th in an event with a low average quality of player, you earn 75 points. Finishing 10th at the PGA Tour’s most prestigious events must earn many more points, right? No, it will earn you 82 points, and that seven point difference is minuscule over the course of a season. For reference, the leader currently has 1,660 points and we’re a little more than halfway through the season.
Am I sure that the Tour isn’t appropriately considering the strength of the field? Let’s look at the data. Estimating how certain tournaments play in relation to one another is relatively straight-forward. Essentially, I calculate a player’s baseline performance over the course of a year and compare it to how he performs at each event. Then, I aggregate this across all players for each tournament. Data from a major championship will show that most players underperform their baselines; this is because players are competing against stronger competition than at the average tournament. It’s a logical result.
As an example, I calculate that a weak quality tournament (the 2020 Safeway Open) plays almost one full stroke per round easier than a high quality tournament (the 2021 Players Championship). I am not referring to the score a player will shoot; I am referring to how a player will score relative to the other players in the field. An approximate interpretation: If a player performed exactly average relative to other players at the 2021 Players Championship, he would finish around 55th place (6.8 points) in the tournament. If he’d played identically at the 2020 Safeway Open, he would outperform the tournament average by about one stroke per round and finish around 35th place (21 points).
PGA Tour player Harry Higgs finished in second place in the 2020 Safeway Open, earning himself 300 points. Two months later, Sungjae Im finished tied for second place at the Masters, earning himself 270 points, thirty points fewer than Harry Higgs earned. You can probably infer whose performance warranted more points. Oops!!
Former #1 Golfer Jason Day Skipping U.S. Open Qualifier
To gain entry status into the U.S. Open, a golfer must meet one of the qualification criteria. For example, if you won last year’s U.S. Amateur Championship, you qualify. If you qualified for the last Playoff event of the previous PGA Tour season (see, FedEx Cup points matter!), you qualify. The qualification criteria will populate the majority of the 156-person field. The remainder of spots are available to the common golfer through qualifying tournaments. Your neighbor down the street who is a good golfer can register for a sectional qualifier, pay a couple hundred bucks, and compete for the eventual chance to play in this major championship. That’s part of what makes the tournament special.
Prior to receiving a special exemption last week, Phil Mickelson was registered to play in a sectional qualifier in Ohio amongst the commoners. Despite being a Hall of Famer and legend within the game of golf, Mickelson humbled himself and registered for a sectional qualifier. Jason Day did not.
It was reported last week that instead of entering a sectional qualifier, Jason Day, an Ohio resident, will be attending a NetJets sponsor event. When pressed for more information on why he will not attempt qualifying, Day effectively said, “I don’t want to get used to sectional qualifying because then next year I’ll have it as an option in the back of my mind instead of earning my spot without a sectional qualifier.”
Day, the #1 ranked player in the world at one point in 2015, is not even going to try qualifying for one of golf’s most important events of the year. Competitors compete. And with $8+ million payouts for most PGA Tour events, it’s easy to see how some players get complacent. Every once in a while, they identify themselves.
Current UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira
UFC 262 went down this past Saturday night in Houston, Texas. I was fortunate enough to attend, and if you have a tolerance for violence, I recommend attending a high-profile fight. The intensity is palpable. Over the last year and a half, I’ve turned into a big fan of the UFC. I’m beginning to realize why I’m increasingly passionate about the sport: It’s authentic.
Fighters from all over the world train for months, hoping for the opportunity to square off with another incredibly skilled fighter. When watching a fight, it’s evident how hard each athlete has prepared. Most fighters are not wealthy, and if they lose, they never know what opportunities remain in their careers. Every second inside the octagon is important. Of how many sports is that true?
Charles Oliveira defeated Michael Chandler in a thrilling fight on Saturday night to become the UFC Lightweight Champion of the world. Oliveira was raised in a poor area of Sao Paolo, Brazil. At age seven, doctors told him he would never walk again due to bone rheumatism. Oliveira refused to accept that he could never play sports, and 24 years later, he is a UFC champion. Look how close Charles Oliveira came to losing the fight on Saturday night:
Two minutes after the footage in the above clip, Oliveira knocked out Chandler. That’s what battling through adversity looks like. And yeah, that’s why I have a problem with Jason Day’s competitive mindset, or lack thereof.
Content I Enjoyed this Week:
Jordan Spieth interviewed on the No Laying Up podcast
Kenny Mayne interviewed on Pardon My Take : time stamp 46:30 - 91:30
The Fried Egg’s Look at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island - It is always more enjoyable to watch a golf tournament with insight into the architecture of the course. The Fried Egg presents amazing visuals and accompanying commentary for the Ocean Course, site of this week’s PGA Championship.