Ravens, Falcons, Muirfield Renovations, and Expectations of Athletes
Leveraging Others’ Intelligence
One of my favorite decision makers is Jonathan Bales. He has enjoyed prolific success in daily fantasy sports and in the business world. He also won a huge, fun bet in which he did 2400 pushups in 12 hours. Above all, he’s a really sharp decision maker.
He tweeted these thoughts a couple months ago, which resonated with me:
We do not have time to truly, thoroughly understand every complicated problem with which we’re tasked. Especially when decisions are time sensitive, leveraging the thoughts of smart people you trust is crucial. Apparently the Ravens subscribe to this mentality.
This article lends insight into a piece of the draft strategy for one of the NFL’s smartest front offices. Throughout the article, director of player personnel Joe Hortiz makes multiple references to how he pays attention to other executives’ opinions on players. I can imagine that when drafting a player, “I like Player X and so does Bill Belichick” would instill more confidence than just “I like Player X.”
The additional benefit is that you gain perspective on where players could get drafted, which is an important element of drafting optimally. If I have the 3rd overall pick and my favorite prospect is a player who will still be available 15 picks later, there is a lot of value in my trading the 3rd overall pick for multiple draft picks, including a slot where I still get my favorite prospect.
This year, the Ravens had both the 27th overall pick and the 31st overall pick and wanted to draft Rashod Bateman. They knew that the Green Bay Packers (29th overall pick) were also high on Rashod Bateman. Baltimore took Bateman at 27, believing he would not be available at 31.
The inverse is true as well: There is value in hiding information! In case you do not know the story behind the Ravens drafting their 2019 MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, I highly recommend this story. The Ravens did not even interview Jackson prior to the 2018 Draft because they did not want other teams to realize they were interested in him. Ultimately, the Ravens selected Jackson with the 32nd overall pick. It’s worked out well.
The Falcons and Julio Jones
Ok, I’m less impressed by the Falcons. The NFL has a hard salary cap, meaning teams cannot pay players more than the league’s salary cap. Other leagues, like the NBA, will allow teams to pay players more than the salary cap, but going over the salary cap comes with a high tax.
The Atlanta Falcons have surpassed the salary cap, which must be solved before the start of the NFL season in a few months. Two ways you can accomplish this are trading a player or restructuring players’ contracts. All reports indicate that the Falcons are electing to solve this problem by trading Julio Jones, frequently regarded as one of the best wide receivers of all time.
My argument for why this does not make sense aligns with Mina Kimes’:
Matt Ryan (age 36) is the Falcons quarterback. If you’re the GM of the Falcons, you either have to believe that Matt Ryan is still an elite quarterback who can win now or that it’s time to look for a new quarterback. Atlanta had the fourth overall pick this year in a draft with an abundance of talent at quarterback. By electing to draft a tight end (and therefore not drafting a quarterback like Justin Fields), the Falcons are committing to winning now.
I do not see how trading Julio Jones aligns with a win-now mentality. One of my professors in college used to say, “When you do not have a strategy, any decision makes sense.” I’m skeptical of the Falcons strategy, or lack thereof.
In related news, the Ravens are interested in Julio Jones:
Renovations – Muirfield Village
Following completion of last year’s Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, Jack Nicklaus immediately began renovating his golf course. In preparing analysis for golfers this week at the Memorial Tournament, it was necessary to take these course renovations into account. Largely, I am disheartened by the renovations, which are outlined here.
Last week, we talked about how width serves as a defense for a golf course. To properly reward a player’s accuracy, a golf course should be wide and punish wayward tee shots. When a hole is too narrow, even the most accurate players on Tour are unable to reliably find the fairway, which leads to a disproportionate reward for long hitters. Muirfield Village, site of the Memorial Tournament, actually has a strong width profile on many holes. As a result, past leaderboards display that a variety of playing styles can flourish at this tournament, in part because players have options off the tee.
Two criteria must be met for a golf hole to present options off the tee:
It must be significantly easier to hit the fairway with less club than a driver
The penalty for missing the fairway must be severe
If these criteria are not met, players will correctly hit driver the overwhelming majority of the time. Hole 1 at Muirfield Village is refreshing; a player has options off the tee. Here’s some data from 2019 and 2020 analyzing player performance by club selection off the tee:
The data shows that players who have used an iron off the tee have outperformed competitors by about 0.1 strokes per attempt. Well, I do not think this is going to be the case on this hole anymore, based on the course renovation notes:
The first hole has been lengthened 20 yards and the fairway has been narrowed. I’m eager to see how the data comes back from this event, but I strongly speculate nearly every player in the field will hit driver now.
Sooner or later, the Tour is going to embrace width as a fundamental characteristic of a proper test, but I won’t hold my breath.
Naomi Osaka
Last Wednesday, Naomi Osaka announced that she would not be doing any press conferences at the French Open, citing prioritizing her mental health:
Osaka suggested that the questions often asked by journalists are not healthy for the athlete. Two days later, reporters asked 17-year-old sensation Coco Gauff this question:
Not great. If an athlete’s goal is to win and she views questions like the above as an impediment, I can’t blame her for removing that impediment. In doing so, Osaka is prepared to deal with the consequences….which have begun!
It was announced that Osaka was fined $15k for skipping her press obligations following her dominant win on Sunday. As the highest earning female athlete in the world, Naomi probably does not lose sleep over $15k. However, in the press release from the French Open governing body, there is a warning that Osaka can be disqualified from the tournament if she continues to skip her press obligations. She might lose sleep over that.
I’m eager to see how this situation shakes out, and I suspect this will be an ongoing story for at least the remainder of this tennis season.
Fans
It sure is good to have fans back! Mostly. Last night, a Celtics fan threw a water bottle at Kyrie Irving as he exited the floor following a Nets win in Game 4 of the Nets-Celtics playoff series. The toss barely missed Kyrie’s head:
Within the last week, fans have also dumped popcorn on Russell Westbrook’s head, spit on Trae Young, and stormed the 18th fairway at the PGA Championship without much regard for Brooks Koepka.
I suppose the list just keeps growing longer of things we expect athletes to deal with while performing their jobs.
Other Content I Enjoyed This Week
One of the worst and craziest plays you’ll see in baseball:
Anniversary of one of the funniest plays in baseball:
