Rewriting the PGA Tour Schedule and More
Rewriting the PGA Tour Schedule
“When you don’t have a strategy, any decision makes sense.” The quote comes from a professor I had at The University of Texas at Austin. It is also a quote you could append to the bottom of the current PGA Tour schedule.
At the risk of painting in too broad of a stroke, I’ll offer a few reasons why I (and many others) believe the current PGA Tour infrastructure/product is an abomination:
Monotony and lack of scarcity in the PGA Tour schedule
The PGA Tour hosts 45+ 72-hole stroke play events per year
PGA Tour golf is played 12 months per year and each season bleeds into the next season. There is no opportunity to get excited for/anticipate the next season. It is upon you as soon as the prior season concludes.
Match play is the most compelling format of golf. Players compete head-to-head in match play once(!!!) per year
When too many events exist, tournaments lack gravity. Why should a viewer tune into the third round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit? Did you watch the final round of the RSM Classic yesterday?
The most valuable players on Tour are not compensated proportionally to their value
Jordan Spieth earned $6.5M on Tour in the 2020-21 season (Money Rank: #6)
Adam Long earned $1.5M on Tour in the 2020-21 season (Money Rank: #85)
Jordan Spieth’s annual value to the Tour relative to Adam Long’s far exceeds $5M
The Tour is a 501(c)(6) non-profit organization run by its members, which imposes constraints
Tour players will (likely) not vote to restructure their Tour for the sake of the 10% of under-compensated star players
The television-viewing experience is awful, especially compared to other sports/streaming services relentlessly working to optimize the viewing experience
Too many commercials
Not enough golf shots are shown
Events are not compelling to watch (see first bullet)
The Tour’s issue is structural. Attempts at solving a structural issue with band-aid solutions (like tossing some cash at the ten most “impactful” players) continue to prove futile.
So rival leagues, backed by significant funding, have formed and are making aggressive moves. I recommend No Laying Up’s lengthy discussion with the CEO of one such league, the PGL.
But I do not want to use this space to whine about how the PGA Tour operates. I’d rather re-envision the future of the PGA Tour and offer an infrastructure to replace the existing system.
Caveat: This is not a financial analysis. I do not want to hear, “But this proposal would be so much less profitable for the Tour!” The goal of this exercise is to imagine a compelling structure for a golf season from scratch. And I do believe that if the format is compelling, the money would follow.
The New Schedule
My PGA Tour schedule contains ten 72-hole stroke play tournaments, each of which hosts the highest ranking 90 players:
Australian tournament
Genesis Invitational at Riviera
Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass
Masters
PGA Championship
Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village
U.S. Open
Open Championship
Japanese tournament
Status on Tour would be purely a function of FedEx Cup points followed by your worldwide standing. FedEx Cup points trump worldwide standing. No sponsors exemptions, no past champions exemptions. No exemptions of any kind.
Outside of the stroke play tournaments, my schedule contains a Match Play Series. Each Match Play Series event would feature the highest ranking 64 players who elect to play the tournament. Once a player has lost his match, he will continue to play the remainder of the weekend for FedEx Cup points. With a shorter schedule, FedEx Cup points matter more, and a player is incentivized to compete through the weekend.
The final event of the season, the FedEx Cup Championship, would be a match play competition of the highest ranked 32 players. For each match, the better-seeded player would receive a half stroke advantage on the hole of his choosing on the front nine. So for the chosen hole, if the two players tie, the lower seed wins the hole. This feature provides an advantage to the player who performed better during the regular season. Additionally, it creates an incentive for players to show up at regular season events to earn points.
The first event of the season would be a 32-man match play event in Kapalua, Hawaii. Players who qualified for the FedEx Cup Championship in the previous year would earn entrance into this tournament. Since every competitor in a match play event would earn at least one point under this system, anyone who plays in Hawaii and decides to play the next stroke play event would automatically qualify. This leaves 58 (90 - 32) available spots at the next tournament. High performing players from other Tours can snag one of the 58 spots if they are next in terms of status. And if they play well in the event, they’ll earn entry into the next one!
In addition to the tournaments I’ve mentioned above, I would include an All-Star Weekend, which I’ve written about before. Golf is the perfect sport for showcasing the skills of the sport’s best athletes. The All-Star Weekend would be co-sanctioned with the LPGA Tour, and it would feature the top 10-12 male and top 10-12 female golfers competing in skills challenges and other unique formats (short game challenges, a three-hole competition with hickory clubs?). Get creative!
The top golfers are underpaid, right? There’s a solution: Hand them a bunch of money to compete in an All-Star Weekend. Pick a slow sports weekend in May/June and put the event on prime time television. People would watch.
Here is my schedule:
Now look at the current PGA Tour schedule. Isn’t my proposed schedule more appetizing? With smaller fields and diversified formats, the Tour could focus on creating an attractive television product.
Top players on Tour would earn more money while only needing to compete 15-18 times per year. Match play, the most captivating format in golf, would comprise almost half the schedule. Between the months of October and December, the PGA Tour would host zero events. The schedule builds genuine excitement for the next season while giving players an offseason.
Unfortunately, for reasons described above, the Tour is unlikely to adopt a schedule like the one I have outlined. Thus, rival leagues are on the horizon.
Peng Shuai
By now you are probably familiar with Peng Shuai, but in case you are not, here is a quick briefing on a situation that deserves significant attention.
A few weeks ago, Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai publicly accused a former high-ranking Chinese government official of sexual assault. Her social media post was immediately scrubbed from Weibo, a Chinese social media site. Shuai also disappeared from the public eye, prompting outcries from people concerned about her safety like the head of the Women’s Tennis Association, Steve Simon.
Don’t worry! China assuaged Simon’s concerns with a totally legitimate note written by Peng Shuai. Yeah…this reads a lot like a hostage note:
Still concerned, Simon demanded assurance of Shuai’s whereabouts and a full investigation into her claims. He, unlike top NBA executives, is willing to jeopardize a business relationship with China in the name of human rights:
For more information, here is a link to a video describing Shuai’s timeline. At the behest of advertisers, YouTube has demonetized the video I just linked. Not concerning at all!
On Saturday, China released a video of Peng Shuai at a youth tennis tournament. On Sunday, the International Olympic Committee president spoke with Shuai via video call and reported back that she is safe. If you are skeptical of China and remain unconvinced that Shuai is completely safe, I’m with you.
Anyway, Beijing is hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics in a few months. Fun!
No More Points, Please
Every once in a blue moon (~3 times per week), I live bet an NFL game. These are bets you place once the game has already started. A huge component of live betting is understanding scenarios. Last Thursday night presented a unique example, and it was one of my favorite bets of the season.
With five minutes remaining in the game, the Patriots got the ball at midfield up 16-0. The live over/under was listed at 16.5 (over -370, under +275). I placed a large wager on the under at +275, which means I needed my side of the bet to be correct more than 27% (100 / (100+275) = 26.7%) of the time to break even on the bet.
Why would I bet that zero more points would be scored?? The Patriots are at midfield and only need a field goal to ruin the bet!
Here’s why I did it:
If the Patriots do not get a first down, they are punting deep into the Falcons territory. The Falcons must take the ball the entire field and score a touchdown. Down by 16, there is no scenario in which the Falcons kick a field goal. I did not have much concern about a struggling Falcons offense scoring a touchdown to ruin the bet.
If the Patriots get one first down and fail to get a second first down, I probably lose the bet. But they might miss the long field goal, so I’m not dead.
If the Patriots get multiple first downs, there is a reasonable chance that they can run out the entire clock. This is a less obvious outcome, but it is part of why I made the bet. In fact, this outcome is what almost happened! With two minutes and zero Falcons time outs remaining, the Patriots had the ball 3rd and 1 at the Atlanta 16-yard line. Successful conversion would end the game because the Pats could kneel the clock out.
The Patriots failed to convert the 3rd and 1, kicked a field goal, and I lost.
I do not have a sophisticated model to calculate the exact percentages attached to each scenario, nor am I trying to convince you that it was a good bet, but I do believe that game ends under 16.5 points more than 27% of the time given the situation.
I did not include this section to garner empathy for a soul-sucking loss, though I do include my contact information below so compassionate messages are always encouraged. I included this section so you can observe the situational element of betting/modeling and how specific scenarios interact with outcomes.
Whatever, I’ve lost money on (much) dumber things.
Feedback/Contact
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
GoFundMe: Just kidding
Other Content from This Past Week
If you have an HBO subscription, I highly recommend Hard Knocks featuring the Indianapolis Colts. Very interesting in-season footage. One episode is released each Wednesday. The Colts won a huge game yesterday, so Wednesday’s episode will be stellar.
The Chicago Bulls are extremely fun to watch this season. I recommend watching whenever they play on national television:
LeBron James and Isaiah Stewart got in a scuffle yesterday and Twitter was pretty fun:
Reminds me of this classic NBA clip
You absolutely love to see it:
