The Masters (2023)
A Proper Test
As part of my preparation for the upcoming Masters, I listened to Geoff Ogilvy on The Fried Egg Golf Podcast talking through all 18 holes at Augusta - a tradition unlike any other. At one point, Ogilvy says that the best golf holes present relatively easy par opportunities, but to make a score better than par, players must face danger.
On a proper golf hole, aggressive players hoping to make birdie or eagle must encounter trouble if they fail to execute their intended shot. Otherwise, the miscue was of no consequence. Golf is at its best when the shots are consequential. The relationship between risk & reward is key.
The most important application of this principle is that short-sided shots should be difficult to get up-and-down. If a player hits his approach shot close to the hole yet misses the putting surface, leaving little green between his ball and the hole, it should be incredibly difficult to save par. That’s the brand of golf I love. That’s the brand of golf at Augusta National.
To make birdie on Hole 3 to a front-left pin location, for example, players must risk coming up short with their approach, which leaves a devilish chip shot.
Ok, last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler may have chipped this shot into the hole, but that’s mostly a testament to both Scheffler’s short game and some luck. Players want zero part of that shot.
Firmness plays an integral part in exacting a penalty on a short-sided shot. Under soft conditions, short-sided players can stop their chip shots quickly, which diminishes the penalty of being short-sided. Unfortunately, the forecast calls for heavy rainfall this weekend. Fortunately, Augusta National has a SubAir system that can firm up a golf course in short order.
Nonetheless, I expect Augusta National to play wetter and softer than usual. I anticipate distance providing even more of an advantage this year than it normally provides. And I expect chipping to be easier this week than at a typical Masters. Players who often struggle to chip may have more success at Augusta this week than under firmer conditions.
The Co-Favorites
I was on the grounds for four of the five competition days at Dell Match Play. I spent most of my time hopping between Scottie Scheffler’s and Rory McIlroy’s matches. Scottie and Rory are two of the three best golfers in the world right now, and they enter the Masters as co-favorites.
In his opening match in Austin, Rory McIlroy had 210 yards into a left hole location on the par 5 16th hole. He overcooked a sweeping draw, short-siding himself in a grass bunker. Rory hit a brilliant chip shot (Video) and escaped the hole without any self-inflicted damage.
Consider how much more difficult McIlroy’s short-sided chip would have been if it hadn’t rained all week in Austin and conditions were firm instead. It’s very unlikely he’d get up-and-down from that location in firm conditions. Now to be fair, he might also be less likely to short side himself in firm conditions, but I’ve observed a healthy sample size of shots where Rory tries to do too much with the golf ball in the air. When trying to put significant curvature on a golf ball, the risk (extremely wide misses) outweighs the reward (hitting the shot inside eight feet).
I tend to document these examples on social media:
Much has been made of Rory McIlroy’s historical success in soft conditions. Generally, the explanation offered is that soft conditions lengthen a golf course, which plays into Rory’s hands since he hits the ball so far. This is true, but I’d take it a step further. I’d argue that soft conditions also reduce the penalty of leaving yourself in the wrong position around greens, which Rory is prone to do.
Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, avoids leaving himself in bad positions around the green. He steers away from attempting magical shots. Scottie knows what kinds of shots he can hit. He just also knows he shouldn’t try to hit them. Rather, he hits a lot of stock, flat shots to conservative locations on greens. To use a blackjack term, Scottie plays more by the book.
Defending Masters champion Scottie Scheffler is playing exceptional & consistent golf, finishing in the top 15 in 12 of his last 13 starts. He’s playing better golf than he was playing entering last year’s Masters:
I realize I’m not going out on a limb, but I would take Scottie Scheffler against any player in the field this week, including Rory McIlroy. Scheffler checks every box required for success at this tournament, and his shot selection is as intelligent as any other player’s. But given the wet conditions forecast this week, I only like his chances slightly more than McIlroy’s.
This is close to a true coin flip.
Cameron Young
Cameron Young is higher on my list this week than on other people’s lists. Outside of the top three (Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm) players in the world, Young has as high of a chance of winning as anybody.
He’s one of the longest drivers in the world, which will provide a significant benefit in the forecasted conditions. The greens at Augusta are large, but they also have a ton of undulation, which divides the greens into sections. Finding the correct section of the green is necessary, and that’s much easier to accomplish from a shorter approach distance.
In addition to being long off the tee, Cameron Young is an accurate driver. When you hit the ball as far as Young does, inaccurate drives are a problem at Augusta, even though the course is wide. Spraying drives DeChambeau-style does not translate to success. Cameron Young is both long and accurate off the tee.
Young is also an excellent iron player, which is vitally important at Augusta.
Young’s shortcomings are generally on and around the greens; he doesn’t have a world-class short game. But like I mentioned above, I expect chipping to be easier this week than at past, crispier editions of the Masters.
Young has one more factor working in his favor. Veteran caddie Paul Tesori recently snagged Young’s bag, giving him an experienced & intelligent companion who is familiar with the numbers. It worked well the last time a veteran caddie hopped on a young superstar’s bag.
World No. 14 Cam Young nearly won at two different major championships last year in his rookie season. Do not be surprised if he gets the job done this week.
Masters Data - The Golf Record
Over the past month or so, Kyle Porter and I have been building a historical golf database. We have ambitious plans for the website long term, but for this week, we just wanted to give you the ability to search historical Masters data.
If you want to see all of Jordan Spieth’s rounds ever played at Augusta, you can do that with two clicks. If you want to know the lowest 4th round score ever shot by a Masters winner, you can find out with a couple clicks.
(Maybe he’ll toss a fat signature on our website’s logo…)
You can sort and filter on every column.
The site will look much different in the future, but for now, it’s a flexible tool that we’d love for you to use. Let us know what features you’d like us to build. We’ll incorporate your feedback into the evolution of the site.
Contact/Feedback
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Other Recent Content
Joel Beall’s article on the expansion plans of Augusta National is a must read
Highly recommend reading this Ryan Lavner article about Masters competitor Sam Bennett
I wrote for The Fried Egg on why Hole 5 at Augusta is such a great hole
Enjoyed Geoff Shackelford on the Course Record Show - he talks the state of golf media, the importance of club pros, and other topics in golf
Interesting look at the evolution of Hole 13:
Related:
It’s amazing what happens when distractions are removed and the sole focus is competition:
Enjoy the Masters.