The OWGR & Augusta, Why NFL Points are Down, DevIn
The OWGR & Augusta
Last week, I had a discussion on The Fried Egg Golf Podcast (Links: Apple, Spotify) about the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Garrett Morrison is the perfect person with whom to have this conversation. We talked about how the OWGR works, why it works the way it works, and the ongoing controversy surrounding recent changes to the ranking methodology. Check it out, especially if you are deeply involved within golf; we cover a lot of ground.
I’d like to expand upon one point I made in the podcast.
For some background, the OWGR is a ranking system of male professional golfers from many tours across the globe. The system is used for qualification in major championships and for important storylines like “Who is the No. 1 ranked player in the world?” Also, the rankings influence things like television contracts and players’ sponsorship deals. The rankings matter.
If every player around the world played in the same tournament each weekend, devising a fair ranking system would be simple. But since players are scattered across the globe playing different events simultaneously, creating an equitable, statistically-responsible ranking methodology is a difficult endeavor.
Historically, the OWGR methodology resulted in a biased ranking. As outlined by Columbia Professor Mark Broadie in a 2012 paper, the system was biased against PGA Tour players. Non-PGA Tour players’ rankings were inflated.
The system had multiple features that resulted in bias, but let’s focus on one: points floors.
The system assigned points minimums to tournaments instead of letting the system delegate points purely based on the strength of the field. Think about a points floor like this:
Points Earned for Winning a Japan Tour Event = Points Delegated Organically by the System OR 16, whichever number is bigger.
If, based on the strength of the field, only 13 points should have been allocated to winning an event on the Japan Tour, you still received 16 points for winning the tournament. You couldn’t win fewer points than the points floor.
Since points floors took effect on international tours like the Japan Tour more often than on the PGA Tour, the system disadvantaged PGA Tour players.
That was the old system. This bias does not exist within the system anymore. Starting in August of 2022, points are delegated strictly based on the strength and depth of the entire field. No points floors exist.
You can make the argument that those points floors, by propping up international tours, provided a net benefit in the old system. They ensured that players from all around the globe were represented in major championships, even if they were not “deserving.” I don’t necessarily agree, but that’s beside the point.
In changing its methodology, the OWGR claimed a shift away from trying to accomplish ulterior objectives, like propping up international tours.
The objective of OWGR is to devise, maintain, review, update, administer and promote the recognition of a system that fairly ranks the relative performances of male professional golfers participating in the leading golf tournaments throughout the world.
A…potential issue…with the new methodology is that while it purports to exist strictly to rank players instead of serving other interests, one piece of the implementation suggests otherwise. The new system allocates fixed points totals to the major championships and to a tournament that will never be a major championship, The Players Championship. Under the new system, winning a major championship earns a fixed 100 points and winning The Players earns a fixed 80 points.
Directly from the OWGR website:
Do you…see the (potential) problem? The OWGR Committee can spin this feature; they can argue that this criteria exists to ensure the integrity of the major championships. If this criteria didn’t exist, The Players Championship would receive more world rankings points than the Masters, which feels inappropriate. After all, the Masters gives a spot to the reigning Latin America Amateur Champion, for example, which weakens its field but is good for the sport and fosters the growth of golf around the world. This must be the argument Augusta made when hearing how the changes were going to impact them, right?
Do you see the issue with this?
The OWGR Board, which includes a member of Augusta National Golf Club, made the same concessions for Augusta National that it stripped away from other entities (like the DP World Tour) who are disadvantaged by the changes to the OWGR methodology.
Imagine being the host of the Australian Open, a wonderful tournament that struggles to fill its field with top talent, in part because it does not receive many OWGR points. By changing its methodology, the OWGR Committee elected to remove artificial incentives (a points floor) for showing up to an event like the Australian Open. The committee decided that the ranking system’s job is just to rank players accurately, not to push players towards entering events like the Australian Open.
It’s impossible to keep everyone happy. At the same time, it’s easy to see why certain players like Jon Rahm feel aggrieved at the new system and how it fails to serve their interests.
Perhaps the answer is that the system should not be trying to serve anyone’s interest. In fact, that’s sort of what the committee said! It’s just not what they did.
Why are Points Down in the NFL?
As athletes become stronger and faster and as data informs decision-making processes in sports, scoreboards are changing.
Look at basketball. NBA teams understand that shots from the mid-range yield low Expected Points per Shot.
This shot chart from a game earlier this season is incredible evidence that the mid-range shot is nearing extinction:
Unsurprisingly, better shot selection has NBA teams scoring at all-time highs.
Across sports, front offices are leveraging information to become more efficient. Yet, NFL scoring is down this year.
Why?
The answer is that defenses are playing two-high safety coverage at much higher than historical rates, daring opponents to run the ball or throw short. They aren’t going to let you throw deep.
Defenses are offering offenses looks that encourage running the ball. And, accordingly, running the ball has been more efficient than in previous years. Therefore, teams have been running the ball more often.
How does this decrease scoring?
This dynamic results in long possessions where the clock is running more frequently than in past years. This lowers the score in both obvious and subtle ways.
Imagine you are watching a game, and the team with the ball commits a Delay of Game penalty on 2nd down. That penalty is now more likely to follow a run play than a pass play compared against previous years. This has implications for the game clock. When this situation occurs, the team replays 2nd down, but while they are huddling/getting set for the next play, the game clock is running because the previous play was a run. If, instead, the previous play had been an incomplete pass play, the game clock would not be running.
With defensive schemes taking away long pass plays, it’s become more efficient for teams to attack on the ground, especially with more mobile quarterbacks entering the league. Put all of this together and you can intuit that optimal touchdown drives take longer than if explosive pass plays were available to the offense like in past years.
You can score touchdowns, but it’s going to take more plays and more time than in past years.
DevIn the Lab
Do you think players in the NBA commit traveling violations too often without being called? Someone is trying to stop that. Devin Williams, a.k.a DevIn the Lab, has risen to Twitter prominence by exposing NBA players for travels/carries. He refers to himself as a Federal Basketball Investigator (FBI).
Sometimes he even takes his talent courtside:
DevIn the Lab is a prime example of a creative Twitter voice creating engagement in the product. He’s even caught the attention of NBA stars like Kevin Durant. No league leans into authentic engagement on social media more effectively than the NBA. It’s a league that understands the value of people like Devin Williams.
Meanwhile, I got DMCA’ed by the PGA Tour a couple weeks ago for posting a 15 second video of something funny I saw on PGA Tour Live during the RSM Classic.
Sorry for trying to engage fans in the product, PGA Tour. It won’t happen again!
2023/Feedback/Contact
I’m going to increase my media involvement in 2023, but I’m not entirely sure what I am going to build yet (pod, YouTube, etc.). If you have any thoughts on what kind of content you’d like me to produce, I will weigh your feedback. Even better if you can think of one that makes money! I’m addicted to starting bad businesses.
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Thank you, as always.
Other Recent Content
If you have not read Seth Wickersham’s ESPN article about former NFL quarterback Andrew Luck, I recommend it. It’s one of my favorite sports articles of the last couple years. For those who cannot read it, here’s a podcast with the author.
The results leave room for improvement but overall not too bad:
Always remember this:
LOVE IT:
Some insightful commentary! Amazing what happens when you allow people to engage with your product:
Manningcast is rivaling Inside the NBA on TNT for best show in sports:
