Tiger and the Dead Zone, Ravens
The Dead Zone
Separation is a fundamental concept in golf: How do players separate themselves from the field?
“…scoring is mostly dictated by when you’re able to hit the green and/or when you’re able to hit an approach shot within 10 feet of the hole.”
For this reason, distance provides its biggest advantage on Par 5s and semi-drivable Par 4s. On lengthy holes like Par 5s, incremental distance gains significantly increase the probability of hitting the green with the approach shot:
Notice that a 15 yard increase in distance is only worth a 4% (79%-75%) chance of hitting the green from 165 yards to 150 yards, while it is worth a 12% (44.5%-32.5%) chance from 235 yards to 220 yards.
On semi-drivable Par 4s, incremental distance significantly increases the probability of hitting the second shot within 10 feet of the hole:
The above tables explain the curvature of the lines within the DataGolf visual I continue to reference:
You should notice that the red line gets steeper under 50 Yards to the hole and between 200 and 250 yards compared to other distances.
Today I want to focus on a subtly different but related takeaway: Very little separation occurs from 140-200 yards on the PGA Tour. Henceforth, I will refer to the 140-200 yard range as “The Dead Zone.” You can pick any distance in The Dead Zone and Tour players will get the ball into the hole in three shots from that distance about 70% of the time from the fairway.
Sure, some players will make a two from 140 yards and some players will make a four from 195 yards. However, painting in broad strokes, The Dead Zone produces a lot of players hitting the green outside 10 feet of the hole, which stifles separation.
I’d highly encourage you to check out the leaderboard from this past weekend’s event. Click through K.H. Lee’s final round en route to victory. Look where his opportunities/birdies originated. He took advantage of Short Par 4s, Par 5s, or knocked in a long putt. He didn’t hit a bunch of 175 yard shots inside 10 feet. Nobody does.
Tiger Woods
How did the greatest player of all time separate himself from competitors? Unfortunately, the beginning of Tiger’s career pre-dates shot-level information. However, we can still glean insights from past results.
When he burst onto the professional scene in the late ‘90s, Tiger Woods was a much longer hitter than almost anyone on Tour. John Daly was the only player who hit tee shots as far as Tiger Woods, and he wasn’t remotely as well-rounded (statistically!) as Tiger was. Tiger’s length represented a significant advantage against the field.
In 2000, Tiger Woods won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach by 15(!) strokes. That week, he gained more than 29 strokes on the field average. For Tiger to separate himself from the field so significantly, I figured not too many of his approach shots could have come from The Dead Zone.
Important note: Given the absence of shot-level information during this time period, we cannot calculate the precise boundaries of The Dead Zone in 2000, though I think it is safe to assume that the yardages would be shorter than today’s Dead Zone. Players hit the ball farther today than they did in 2000. It’s much easier to hit a green from 190 yards today than it was in 2000.
The Dead Zone was probably somewhere like 125-175 yards in the early 2000s compared to 140-200 yards today.
Here’s the scorecard from that week at Pebble Beach:
My assumption was that Tiger gained the most strokes on holes with an approach shot outside The Dead Zone (~125-175 yards) with expected 300 yard drives.
The data *sort of* bear this out. Here’s Tiger’s strokes gained by hole in the 2000 U.S. Open:
Ok, four rounds is an extremely small sample size but conceptually and observationally, some of the numbers in the table check out. For more context, you can watch every shot of Tiger’s final round back nine here in ten minutes, which I recommend.
An advantage that comes with being a long hitter is hitting less club on your approach shots. Hitting less club results in more control over your ball and higher shot trajectory, so finding the green is easier. Thus, long hitters are not only closer to the hole after many drives, but they also hit less club into greens than their competitors because they hit the ball farther. This is particularly advantageous on holes longer than the upper bound of The Dead Zone like Holes 12 and 17. As observed in the video linked above, Tiger hit 5-iron into Hole 12 and 4-iron into Hole 17, while many other players must have hit woods into those Par 3s.
The greens at Pebble Beach are notoriously small, exacerbating the challenge of hitting a long approach shot into the green. Just by parring the long Par 3 Hole 17 every round, Tiger gained almost a half of a stroke per round on his competitors.
Fortunately for everyone in the field not named Tiger (including Greg Norman who finished almost dead last in this event, but everyone makes mistakes), they only played the 2000 U.S. Open once. If they had played it 10,000 times, I’d expect Holes 2, 12, and 17 would remain near the top of our “Tiger’s Strokes Gained by Hole” table. Hole 10 would drift towards the bottom of the table since it includes an approach from The Dead Zone.
Featuring a mix of long and short holes with few in between, Pebble Beach set up ideally for Tiger to create separation. And separate he did.
Next year, when the Sony Open or the Phoenix Open goes to a yet another playoff hole, think back to this edition of the newsletter. A high percentage of shots from The Dead Zone coupled with large greens sure seems to have a way of bunching players at the top of the leaderboard…
Baltimore Ravens Draft
Ok this was cool. After accumulating compensatory picks and completing a few trades, the Baltimore Ravens made 10 draft picks in the first four rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft. No other team had more than seven picks and only eight teams had more than five picks.
The Baltimore Ravens, long regarded as one of the sharpest front offices in the NFL, bet that with college players being granted an extra year of eligibility due to Covid, this year’s draft would be deeper with talent than previous or future drafts.
Before last year’s draft, Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz told owner Steve Bisciotti that the 2022 one was going to be “pretty fat” because of the players coming back from COVID-19 after gaining an extra year of eligibility.
Time will tell how successfully the strategy pans out, but most of the consensus entering this year’s draft seemed to align with the Ravens prediction that there was a depth of talent. Historically, drafting NFL players is hard and unpredictable. More bites at the apple is good! Especially in a year with an abundance of talent.
I like the forward thinking.
Competitive Balance
When you have a sizable strategic advantage, you will win much more often than your opponents win.
Once the walls are broken down and edges are shared, it’s hard to be a huge favorite.
Happy Birthday - Finding the Edge
Happy First Birthday to this newsletter!
I started this newsletter with no audience and the belief that there was an appetite for analytically-driven sports content. Today’s newsletter is my 33rd over the past 52 weeks, all of which are available to read in the archive.
Thank you to those who read, send me content, and share the newsletter on pods or amongst your friends.
I sincerely appreciate you.
Feedback/Contact
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
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