Previewing the 2021 Ryder Cup
Ryder Cup Resources
In case you are a new Finding the Edge reader or missed a previous newsletter, I would recommend the following resources before reading this edition. Not imperative in understanding this edition but helpful!
My appearance on The Fried Egg podcast to discuss The Strategy of Team Match Play
Good + Bad > Mediocre + Mediocre
I have written about this graph before, but I am writing about it again because this is the most important concept in golf analytics:
Interpretation: Expected value and make probability are nearly identical terms. An expected value of 1.5 basically suggests that a player will make the putt 50% of the time, and he will two-putt the other 50% of the time.
The graph displays a crucial characteristic of golf: players’ make probabilities on putts are nonlinear. In other words, your make probability changes significantly on a 5-foot putt versus a 6-foot putt, but there is a much smaller difference in your chance of making a 27-foot putt versus a 28-foot putt. As you get closer to the hole (left side of the visual), your chance of making a putt increases rapidly.
You are better off hitting an approach shot to 3 feet and an approach shot to 25 feet than you are hitting two approach shots to 14 feet. Even though each set of shots carries the same average proximity to the hole (14 feet), you will score better with the first set of shots than the two shots to 14 feet. This is nonlinearity in action. In golf, generally good + bad > mediocre + mediocre.
The concept of nonlinearity impacts golf analysis both subtly and overtly. The Ryder Cup is no exception. When pairing players together in the Ryder Cup, creating “good-bad” scenarios will generally outperform “mediocre-mediocre” scenarios.
I’ll give you an example.
In the Alternate Shot format, I would pair Bryson DeChambeau with Collin Morikawa. DeChambeau is the longest driver on the PGA Tour, and Morikawa is an elite iron player, including with his wedges.
When DeChambeau hits a long drive, Morikawa will often have a short iron for the second shot, which presents an opportunity to hit the ball close to the hole (or towards the left side of the above graph).
The appropriate counterargument is “Ok, but then when Morikawa hits the drive, Bryson will have a long approach into the hole, which does not present a great opportunity to hit the ball close to the hole.”
Correct, but the benefits of the DeChambeau → Morikawa sequence outweigh the cost of the Morikawa → DeChambeau sequence.
Mixing skill sets, especially in alternate shot, produces favorable sequences. The value of the favorable sequences outweighs the downside of the unfavorable sequences.
Nonlinearity is powerful.
Fourballs versus Foursomes
In evaluating whether a player is more suitable to play in the Fourballs (a.k.a. Best Ball) or the Foursomes (a.k.a. Alternate Shot) format, I would consider the following.
In Fourballs, players who make birdies at a high rate are more valuable than players who do not. Like the name suggests, the Fourballs format features four balls in play, two from each team. Only the best score from each team counts. Making par on a hole is only valuable for your team if your partner makes worse than par and neither member of the opposing team makes birdie or better. If a member of the opposing team makes birdie and you make a par, the outcome is no different than if you had made a 10 on the hole.
Imagine a fictional player who birdies 17 holes per round on the PGA Tour, and then he always explodes and records a 20 on the 18th hole. You would want him as your Fourballs partner! Seventeen birdies per round is unbeatable in Fourballs, and the score of 20 would not matter anyway.
Players who make birdies at a high rate are valuable in Fourballs.
In Foursomes, or Alternate Shot, players who are skilled around the greens carry slightly more value than in the Fourballs format. Typically, when a player is chipping, he is chipping for birdie. His chip will determine whether he makes par or bogey. As discussed above, par versus bogey does not matter much in Fourballs. Likely, your partner has already made par or better. Or, the opposing team could have made a birdie. If either condition is met, the chip is irrelevant.
But in Foursomes, almost every chip shot matters. Only one ball is in play per team, which means that you cannot count on a teammate to make par, and the chance of your opponent making birdie is much lower since only one ball is in play.
Depending on the golf course, I’d estimate that in Foursomes, players will have ~3.5-4 relevant chips per round compared to ~2.5-3 relevant chips per round in Fourballs.
At the Ryder Cup in 2018, Team USA paired Tiger Woods with Patrick Reed in Fourballs on Saturday morning while birdie-maker Bryson DeChambeau rode the bench. On Saturday afternoon, Tiger Woods was paired with Bryson DeChambeau in Foursomes while excellent short-game player Patrick Reed rode the bench.
Following my logic, simply flipping DeChambeau and Reed would have improved Team USA’s chances. Each of those teams was crushed by the opponent; reconfiguring couldn’t have hurt!
Proposed Pairings for Team USA
Friday Foursomes:
B. DeChambeau/C. Morikawa
D. Johnson/D. Berger
B. Koepka/J. Thomas
P. Cantlay/X. Schauffele
Friday Fourballs:
B. DeChambeau/D. Berger
D. Johnson/P. Cantlay
J. Thomas/J. Spieth
B. Koepka/S. Scheffler
Saturday Foursomes:
X. Schauffele/C. Morikawa
D. Johnson/H. English
J. Thomas/T. Finau
P. Cantlay/J. Spieth
Saturday Fourballs:
B. DeChambeau/D. Berger
B. Koepka/S. Scheffler
D. Johnson/J. Spieth
P. Cantlay/X. Schauffele
In creating these pairings, my goals were:
Have the best players on the course as much as possible
Pair complementary skill sets so partners outperform on different holes
Consider the dynamic of Foursomes vs. Fourballs and who is more suitable for the respective format
Importantly, as I’ve written about before, the longer-hitting partner should tee off on the even-numbered holes in Foursomes.
The above pairings enable putting long hitters on the even-numbered holes while reaping additional benefits as well. For example, in the DeChambeau/Morikawa pairing, Bryson would tee off on two Par 5s and two potentially drivable Par 4s. Also, Morikawa would hit vital shots that align with his skill set, like the tee shots on #7, #11, and #17.
Closing Ryder Cup Thoughts
Team USA is priced as a ~65% favorite to win the Ryder Cup. Given the wealth of talent on the American roster, that seems like a fair price to me.
If you are surprised that Team USA is not more strongly favored, bear in mind that the best player in the world, Jon Rahm, is on Team Europe. Additionally, this format is high variance, and forecasted windy conditions could favor Team Europe.
I would expect Team USA to win their Fourballs matchups comfortably. Foursomes is a bit less predictable, though the American team should still be favored. I anticipate a United States victory on Sunday night, but events are won by executing shots, not with spreadsheets (much to my dismay)!
I’ll provide some commentary on Twitter throughout the event. I hope you enjoy watching and observing many concepts from this newsletter in action. Go USA!
Ravens
Ok, one football thing. This past weekend’s slate of NFL games featured a number of awful coaching decisions like this and this. But the Sunday Night Football game, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, finished with an excellent coaching moment.
The Ravens were up by one point with a minute remaining in the game, and their opponent had zero time outs left. Baltimore faced a 4th and 1 from their own half of the field. What should they do?
Sometimes decision trees are complex and require sophisticated models to arrive at the optimal answer. Not this time. As the Ravens coach, you basically just need to answer “Which outcome is more likely: We punt to the Chiefs and stop them from scoring a field goal OR we convert the 4th and 1 attempt?”
The math suggests that you should attempt the 4th and 1.
Here’s what happened:
Cool moment! Coach Harbaugh asks his quarterback if he wants to go for the 4th and 1. Quarterback Lamar Jackson approves, and the Ravens successfully complete the 4th down to secure the win. Respect to Coach Harbaugh for trusting both the numbers and his quarterback, which led to making a smart decision quickly and under pressure.
Per a really sharp bettor’s model, undoubtedly the correct decision:
Contact/Feedback
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Other Content from this Past Week
Awesome podcast from The Fried Egg with Mike Whan, CEO of the USGA
Clip from Derek Carr’s postgame interview after Monday Night Football last week:
Inspiring Instagram post from PGA Tour player Nick Hardy, who cashed a check this weekend:
Gavin Newsom avoided near disaster last week. Thankfully, they cut the tape:
This is sort of sports-adjacent:
