Should the Denver Broncos Draft Matt Araiza?
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NFL Punting
In football, punting occurs on 4th down when a team fails to earn a first down or score points. By definition, a team punts when it has been unsuccessful on offense.
As insights from analytics spread throughout the NFL, punts per game have decreased. The reason is two-fold:
Analysis suggests that in many fourth down situations, especially in short-yardage situations within 50 yards of the opponent’s end zone, a team’s win probability increases by going for the first down instead of punting. This insight has been embraced across the league, so teams punt less often in these situations than in prior decades.
Offenses have become more efficient over time, resulting in more touchdowns/field goal attempts and fewer punts.
So punting must not be important, right? We should devalue punters moving forward, right?? Generally that’s probably true, but punters are still valuable. Let’s look at why.
The Value of Punting
How should we value punting in the modern-day NFL?
Expected Points Added, many NFL analysts’ favorite stat, provides a framework for contextualizing the value of individual plays. I’ve written about it on multiple occasions, and though I’m not the biggest fan of how the stat is frequently interpreted, it does a decent job assessing the value of a play in terms of points. When a team has a successful play, the team might add ~0.8 points to its expected points on the possession. EPA is the equivalent of Strokes Gained in golf.
But if you want to evaluate the success and value of a punter in the NFL, looking at EPA per punt falls short. Very short.
Here’s why: As discussed above, models recommend “Going for It” on many fourth down situations, especially in the opponent’s half of the field. When coaches elect to punt in this situation, the punter is penalized in EPA despite punting the ball well.
An example, courtesy of Football Perspective:
In a 2014 game between the Cardinals and Lions, Bruce Arians called for Drew Butler to punt from the Detroit 36. The result of the play saw the Lions take possession on their own 1 yard line..this was the best possible outcome…Butler earned -0.360 EPA on the play.
So the punter executed the punt perfectly, yet he earned negative EPA because the coach should not have chosen to punt in that scenario.
On the other hand, in 2013 a Bengals punter punted the ball from his own 21 yard line to the opponent’s 4-yard line, which was worth 3.5 points to his team.
(Quick aside for the golf folks: If someone asked you, “How many points do you think a 45-yard punt is worth?”, you should probably respond, “Well, it depends on the situation.” EPA reflects opportunity. So does Strokes Gained…)
Ok, enough set up. Let’s get to the payoff.
I agree that punts from the opponent’s territory, especially in short-yardage situations (like 4th down and 4 yards to go), do not carry much value in the NFL because the offense should remain on the field instead of the punting unit.
Thus, we can conclude that generally the most valuable punts in football are:
Long, booming punts from your own half of the field
Accurate punts from the opponent’s territory on 4th and long situations
Therefore, punters are more valuable on teams with a poor offense, as these teams will be in the above scenarios more often than teams with a highly efficient offense.
Matt Araiza
San Diego State’s punter Matt Araiza might be the best punter in the history of college football. All season he launched punts and shattered records:
Here’s an example of one of his strongest punts, but you could find dozens more:
Routinely, Araiza launches punts from his own territory deep into the opponent’s territory, which is one of the valuable scenarios we discussed above. And in addition to punting, he kicks field goals for San Diego State and is able to make field goals from extremely long distances.
Controlled, accurate 40-yard punts might be less valuable in the modern NFL than they used to be, for reasons discussed above. But lengthy bombs from deep in a team’s own territory are valuable, and that is where Matt Araiza provides a unique advantage.
So who should draft him?
The Denver Broncos
Over the past few seasons, the Denver Broncos have been one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Denver has fared a bit better in the 2021 season than in past seasons, but the offensive nucleus does not inspire enormous confidence moving forward. So following my logic above, this is a team that should value punters more highly than other teams.
Additionally, there’s a unique, relevant feature about playing football in Denver. The stadium is located at altitude. Mile High Stadium sits 5,300 feet above sea level, significantly higher than any other stadium in the NFL. Hence, if Denver drafts Araiza, he would play half his games in an environment where the ball travels farther than at any other stadium. Extra distance is pretty helpful when you are punting from deep in your own territory, which is the situation in which we value Araiza most.
And since Matt Araiza can also boot long field goals, wouldn’t that be a nice asset in Denver? When Denver has just a few seconds remaining on the clock at the end of the first half with the chance to attempt 68-yard field goal at altitude, Araiza has enough leg to make the kick.
The bottom line is that some NFL teams should value positions differently than other teams, which is important to recognize under a hard salary cap. And Matt Araiza should be worth more to the Denver Broncos than he is to any other team.
Consider the benefits during a contract negotiation. When negotiating a second contract with Araiza, Denver has an advantage in that if he’s worth more to Denver than any other team, no team should offer Araiza enough money to pry him away from Denver. Therefore, Denver should be able to re-sign Araiza at a slight discount.
Should the Denver Broncos decide to draft Matt Araiza, you heard it here, first. Or like mid-fifth ideally.
Feedback/Contact
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
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