Ryder Cup Recap and Nonlinearity
Captain Steve Stricker
The 2021 Ryder Cup concluded yesterday, and Team USA emerged victorious! From the past few weeks through yesterday evening, I have appreciated Captain Stricker’s approach to the captaincy. I am happy to see him rewarded for his efforts:
Historically, Team USA has leveraged a “pod system” in some of their Ryder Cup wins. In a pod system, the 12 members of the whole team are arranged into three smaller teams comprised of four players. Within this system, a captain would only partner you with another member of your pod, and you would practice with the other three members of your pod in practice rounds leading up to the event.
I am staunchly opposed to the pod system. A pod system introduces constraints into a situation in which one should prioritize maximum flexibility. As I have discussed in past newsletters, some players are better suited for one format (Foursomes or Fourballs) than the other format. Some pairings are excellent in Foursomes but less than ideal in Fourballs. If I am trying to configure strong pairings, why limit partnership options for Player A to Players B, C, and D when there are eight alternatives? Do you really think operating within the confines of a pod system yields the single best pairings combinations?
I do not. Neither does Steve Stricker. At a press conference a couple weeks ago, a reporter asked Captain Stricker if he planned to use the pod system. In his answer, he alluded to the constraints imposed by a pod system. And this past weekend at the Ryder Cup, he deviated from the rules prescribed by a strict pod system. Entering the event, many people hypothesized a Spieth-Thomas-Koepka-Berger pod. Those players did partner with one another for multiple matches. But on Friday afternoon, Captain Stricker paired Justin Thomas with Patrick Cantlay, a player from a different pod.
Overall, Captain Stricker game planned for the event commendably. He recognized that some players belong in Fourballs while some belong in Foursomes. He recognized that complementary skill sets should be paired together, especially in Foursomes (shout out to an intelligent DJ-Morikawa pairing). And he stuck with his plan.
He also recognized that the best players should be on the golf course as much as possible. Dustin Johnson’s skill set and talent indicated that he would perform well at Whistling Straits, and Stricker enlisted DJ for all five sessions. The decision led to a 5-0-0 record from DJ, and it also led to my prediction coming true:
I am wrong about a lot of things, so it is nice to be correct every once in a while. I’d welcome another Captain Stricker captaincy.
Bunkers as True Hazards
I enjoyed Whistling Straits as host for a Ryder Cup. The golf course demands a diversity of golf shots, and the presence of wind requires players to control their shot trajectories and distances. These traits are atypical of most PGA Tour courses.
My favorite characteristic of the course is that the green side bunkers at Whistling Straits represent significant penalties. Many of the small bunkers contain foliage, and the sand is firm and compact. Shots that find these bunkers lead to uneven lies and unpredictable, challenging tests. At the 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, players got up-and-down from green side bunkers at a lower rate than the rate at any other tournament in the 2015 season.
Penal bunkers impact players’ strategies and allow the best iron players to identify themselves. At many courses on the PGA Tour, players are content with finding a bunker because the sand shot offers an easy opportunity. Not the case at Whistling Straits!
My favorite example from the week was Bryson DeChambeau’s experience on Hole 13 in Friday’s Fourballs session. He hit his drive ~395 yards into a green side bunker, just 30 feet away from the hole. DeChambeau failed to hit the green with his sand shot because the shot was extremely challenging. In most PGA Tour green side bunkers, a DeChambeau up-and-down would be expected.
Golf courses with difficult green side bunkers create separation in scoring between a high-quality approach shot and a low-quality approach shot. Here a few other courses on Tour with difficult green side bunkers:
PGA West
Riviera
TPC San Antonio
Pebble Beach
Muirfield Village (Barbara’s Place)
Strong iron players tend to perform well at the above venues. And strong iron players performed well at Whistling Straits (DJ, Morikawa, etc.).
Nonlinearity in Golf Part 3
Last week, I wrote about the importance of understanding nonlinearity in golf. There is a nonlinear relationship between expected values and distance from the hole. The probability of making a 5-foot putt versus an 8-foot putt is significantly different! The difference between making a 27-foot putt versus a 30-foot putt? Not so much.
Let’s discuss another application of the same concept. Data Golf wrote a detailed article touching on this concept, which included a phenomenal visual.
As shown in the above graph, a player’s expected value is much different from 20 yards away from the hole than from 30 yards away from the hole. The difference is much more significant than the difference between being 140 yards away from the hole versus being 150 yards away from the hole.
For this reason, drivable Par 4s offer a substantial advantage to long hitters who can drive the ball near the green. Hole 10 was the best example from the 2021 Ryder Cup, and it is part of why I advocated for long hitters to tee off on the even-numbered holes at Whistling Straits.
The hole measures ~350 yards, so long hitters can hit the ball within 50 yards of the green. Follow the graph above! Length is more important on Hole 10 than on other holes because you are moving left on the graph and you are within 50 yards of the green. Distance increases in value rapidly on holes such as #10.
Team USA, the longer hitting team, demolished Team Europe on Hole 10. Of the 28 matches, Team USA recorded 16 birdies on the hole compared to Team Europe’s 12 birdies. Team Europe also scored two bogeys on the hole, and Team USA scored zero. In Friday Fourballs, Europe failed to record a single birdie on the hole.
Hole 10 exemplifies the benefits of distance in golf, and it represents the power of understanding nonlinearity as well.
Nonlinearity in NFL Football Part 1
Nonlinearity exists in football too!
Compared to golf, nonlinearity occurs in the other direction. As you approach the end zone, the importance of distance in field goal kicking diminishes. In other words, adding yardage to a field goal attempt becomes much more significant at long distances than at short distances, where a successful kick is nearly certain.
When kicking a field goal, a kicker’s probability of making a kick from 30 yards is nearly identical to his chance of making a 35-yard kick. However, the difference in make probability between a 45-yard kick and a 50-yard kick is nearly 10%!
From a strategic perspective, here is how I want to see this concept leveraged in the NFL more often.
Assume a team has the ball 4th and 3 on the opponent’s 8-yard line. I’d like to see the quarterback attempt a few hard counts to try and draw the opponent offsides, incurring a penalty. If successful, the offense is 1st and Goal from the 4-yard line. If unsuccessful, the offense receives a 5-yard penalty for Delay of Game, but it does not matter! Their probability of making such a short kick has not changed (ok it barellllly changes). Effectively, this is a free roll.
Weaponizing nonlinearity to your advantage is valuable.
Plug
My business partner and I are in the middle of year-end analysis for players on the PGA Tour. If you are a Tour player (or in close proximity to one) and you are looking for analysis (tournament scheduling, areas for improvement, etc.), now is an opportune time to connect with us. See contact info below.
Next Week
Weekend One of Austin City Limits is this upcoming weekend. I am a resident of Austin, Texas. A Finding the Edge newsletter is unlikely next week.
Feedback/Contact
Twitter: @JosephLaMagna
Email: Joseph.LaMagnaGolf@gmail.com
Other Content from This Past Week
Some people were mad about this. It’s not going to win you a Nicklaus-Jacklin Award but it’s fair play imo:
Volkanovski-Ortega is definitely on my short list for Fight of the Year (Warning: violent video):
Incredible comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football. He’s been outstanding in Weeks 2 and 3, and his games feel like must-see television right now:
I’ve written about this situation before. My hero Voulgaris and the Dallas Mavericks have gone separate ways:
Rory McIlroy produces mixed emotions for me. Nobody is easier to cheer for; nobody underperforms more often:
Note: If you enjoy football and have not yet tuned into the Monday Night Football Manning broadcast on ESPN 2, I cannot recommend it enough. It’s every Monday!